Expected Value

Overview — Expected Value (EV) metrics

EV metrics quantify the edge between a bookmaker's offered odds and the model's fair odds
across five betting markets. Each metric is a fixture-level signal; team_id is always 0.

EV is calculated as: EV = round(((realOdd - fairOdd) / fairOdd) * 100)
A positive value means the bookmaker's price is above the model's fair value (value bet);
negative means the price is below fair value (no edge).
Fair odds are derived from xG or equivalent xMetrics via BettingCalculator.

Region encoding in developer_name:

• EUROPE — bookmaker_id = 2
• ASIA — bookmaker_id = 3

Practical Application & Use Cases

Value Bet Identification: Scan all EV metrics for a fixture to instantly surface markets where
the model has a positive edge over a specific bookmaker. A positive EV (e.g. +8 on EV_EUROPE_ML_HOME)
signals the European bookmaker is overpricing the home win relative to the xG-implied probability —
a directly actionable value bet opportunity.

Cross-Market Edge Comparison: Compare EV across markets (ML, AH, GL, COR, YC) for the same fixture
to identify where the sharpest mispricing exists. A fixture may show -2 EV on the Money Line but
+11 on the Goal Line, pointing analysts toward the most profitable market for that game.

Regional Bookmaker Benchmarking: EV metrics are split by region (EUROPE / ASIA), enabling direct
comparison of how differently two major bookmaker pools price the same outcome. Consistent positive
EV on one region and negative on another highlights structural pricing differences exploitable over
large sample sizes.

Market Efficiency Monitoring: Tracking how EV values shift as kick-off approaches reveals how quickly
bookmakers adjust to model signals. A large positive EV that collapses in the final hours before
a match indicates the sharp money has already moved the line, confirming the model's edge was real.

Portfolio & Staking Decisions: EV values feed directly into Kelly-criterion or flat-staking frameworks.
Filtering for fixtures where multiple related markets (e.g. AH and GL) show simultaneous positive EV
provides higher-confidence opportunities for larger stake allocation.

Examples for EV metrics

EV_EUROPE_ML_HOME

{
    "fixture_id": 12345,
    "type_id": 281,
    "team_id": 0,
    "developer_name": "EV_EUROPE_ML_HOME",
    "value": 8
}

Interpretation: European bookmaker's home-win price is 8% above the model's fair odd — value bet.

EV_ASIA_ML_DRAW

{
    "fixture_id": 12345,
    "type_id": 285,
    "team_id": 0,
    "developer_name": "EV_ASIA_ML_DRAW",
    "value": -5
}

Interpretation: Asian bookmaker's draw price is 5% below fair value — no edge.

EV_EUROPE_AH_HOME

{
    "fixture_id": 12345,
    "type_id": 287,
    "team_id": 0,
    "developer_name": "EV_EUROPE_AH_HOME",
    "value": 12
}

Interpretation: European bookmaker's Asian Handicap home price on the main line is 12% above fair value.

EV_ASIA_AH_AWAY

{
    "fixture_id": 12345,
    "type_id": 290,
    "team_id": 0,
    "developer_name": "EV_ASIA_AH_AWAY",
    "value": -3
}

Interpretation: Asian bookmaker's Asian Handicap away price on the main line is 3% below fair value.

EV_EUROPE_GL_OVER

{
    "fixture_id": 12345,
    "type_id": 291,
    "team_id": 0,
    "developer_name": "EV_EUROPE_GL_OVER",
    "value": 6
}

Interpretation: European bookmaker's goal-line over price on the main total line is 6% above fair value.

EV_ASIA_GL_UNDER

{
    "fixture_id": 12345,
    "type_id": 301,
    "team_id": 0,
    "developer_name": "EV_ASIA_GL_UNDER",
    "value": -10
}

Interpretation: Asian bookmaker's goal-line under price is 10% below fair value.

EV_EUROPE_COR_OVER

{
    "fixture_id": 12345,
    "type_id": 300,
    "team_id": 0,
    "developer_name": "EV_EUROPE_COR_OVER",
    "value": 9
}

Interpretation: European bookmaker's corner-line over price on the main line is 9% above fair value.

EV_ASIA_COR_UNDER

{
    "fixture_id": 12345,
    "type_id": 297,
    "team_id": 0,
    "developer_name": "EV_ASIA_COR_UNDER",
    "value": 4
}

Interpretation: Asian bookmaker's corner-line under price is 4% above fair value.

EV_EUROPE_YC_OVER

{
    "fixture_id": 12345,
    "type_id": 296,
    "team_id": 0,
    "developer_name": "EV_EUROPE_YC_OVER",
    "value": 7
}

Interpretation: European bookmaker's yellow-card line over price is 7% above fair value.

EV_ASIA_YC_UNDER

{
    "fixture_id": 12345,
    "type_id": 293,
    "team_id": 0,
    "developer_name": "EV_ASIA_YC_UNDER",
    "value": -2
}

Interpretation: Asian bookmaker's yellow-card line under price is 2% below fair value.